When "Nothing Works Anymore" (Part 2 of 5)

In my last post, I outlined four questions to ask when the same marketing programs and investment level no longer produce the same -- or the needed -- business results. These are:

(1) Are there more companies competing in your category?
(2) Are there fewer brides in your market?
(3) Have you adjusted your tracking for the impact of the web?
(4) Could your marketing materials, advertising or media mix use a revamp?

Today let's look at (2) -- are there fewer brides in your market?

I'm surprised by how infrequently wedding vendors consider the possibility that their market is shrinking (or growing) when evaluating the effectiveness of their marketing.

Wedding industry participants (not just vendors -- us media types, too!) live by many assumptions about brides that may or may not actually be true.

For example, we assume that brides shop primarily from January to April, typically book a year out, spend a predictable percentage of their budget on each wedding service, and, most relevant to this discussion, we assume that there are more or less the same number of them each year.

Here's the rub, though: I've been publishing in this market for five years, and in each of those years, there's been a collective reaction of "what a weird year!" when the behavior of brides fails to match the expected pattern. Is it time to consider that the accepted assumptions about the market might not always be correct?

I submit that many market forces impact the actual size of the wedding market each year. Some of these include:

• Birth Rates -- birth rates declined dramatically in the 70s and 80s. This means there are fewer women in their 20s and 30s now than there were in last decade. So, the broadest demographic measure of the pool of potential brides suggests that all vendors are competing for fewer customers.
• Economic Outlook -- even if the number of weddings stays the same, an economic downturn -- or even fears about one -- can reduce the total number of customers available to you? How? When brides tighten their belts and reduce their wedding budgets, some professional services are eliminated altogether. Today's brides also rely heavily on credit, including home equity credit, to finance their weddings -- and higher interest rates and lower housing values are putting a squeeze on that source of funds.
• Regional Climate -- local trends and economic factors play an even bigger role. Consider the Sacramento market where we're based. Over the last ten years, a huge influx of population to our region has masked the demographic trend to fewer weddings. But, as that population boom has slowed, so naturally will the number of brides decline as well.
• Wedding Style Trends -- changes in wedding preferences among brides can effectively expand or shrink the market. For example, it's estimated that there are now four or five times as many destination weddings each year than there were in the 90s -- and that as much as a third of all weddings now are planned as destination events. Even if the same number of weddings occur, this greatly reduces the total bridal market in non-destination regions.
• Other External Factors -- one example: as the Iraq war began, a surge in weddings occurred, as couples pushed up weddings that were planned for a year or more later. These weddings were in effect "borrowed" from today's market -- weddings that would have occurred in 2005, 2006, 2007 instead took place in 2002 and 2003.

Why is it so important to understand if the market in your area is shrinking or growing? Because you can't evaluate the effectiveness of your marketing without understanding the influence of market size. When the market is growing, your marketing efforts may seem more effective than they really are -- because increased demand for wedding services helps all vendors ("a rising tide lifts all boats"). Similarly, on the downside, when it seems that your marketing "stops working," it may be that your marketing is just as effective as before, but there are fewer brides to respond to it -- which means you need to increase your promotion to compensate.

Next post: is your tracking on track?